OH 5441 · BGR → PHL

departs 4:33 PM ET · arrives 6:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BGR that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.63 in

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5441 · BGR → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?