Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 3781 · MFR → SEA
departs 6:15 AM PT · arrives 7:52 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Mon 10/12 10%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MFR is prone to delays
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR
↓
6am departures from MFR are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.