Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 3818 · PDX → SEA
departs 11:15 AM PT · arrives 12:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 11%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 15%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from PDX are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 2 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.