Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 3847 · BUF → DTW
departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 5:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at BUF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.