Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4231
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
OO 4231 · CIU → DTW
departs 4:13 PM ET · arrives 5:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave CIU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at CIU that day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CIU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.60 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.