Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 4609 · DTW → SBN
departs 9:08 AM ET · arrives 10:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Thu 10/15 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
DTW is busy at that time
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.