Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4642
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 4642 · BFL → SFO
departs 10:03 AM PT · arrives 11:32 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Sat 10/17 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BFL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BFL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.