Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4971
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 4971 · PHX → ELP
departs 12:36 PM MT · arrives 3:02 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 10/12 33%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
ELP is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.