Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5235
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 5235 · IAH → GDL
departs 12:04 PM CT · arrives 1:43 PM CST
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Mon 10/12 17%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
12pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.09 in
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.