Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5422
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 5422 · SFO → MSO
departs 12:15 PM PT · arrives 3:38 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Mon 10/12 28%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 39%
Thu 10/15 41%
Fri 10/16 44%
Sat 10/17 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSO (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.