Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 5433 · SFO → TUS
departs 10:08 AM PT · arrives 12:28 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 10/12 25%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 33%
Thu 10/15 34%
Fri 10/16 34%
Sat 10/17 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
TUS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.