Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 5502 · MRY → SFO
departs 8:32 AM PT · arrives 9:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Mon 10/12 28%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 52%
Thu 10/15 40%
Fri 10/16 53%
Sat 10/17 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 56% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
8am departures from MRY are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.