Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5566
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 5566 · SFO → FAT
departs 10:11 AM PT · arrives 11:18 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 10/12 24%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 32%
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.