Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
OO 5831 · SBA → SFO
departs 9:32 AM PT · arrives 10:55 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 35%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sat 10/17 28%
Sun 10/18 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.