Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 6186 · TUS → PHX
departs 7:03 AM MT · arrives 8:13 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.