Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2130
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
PD 2130 · EWR → YTZ
departs 1:53 PM ET · arrives 3:37 PM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 10/12 18%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at YTZ that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
YTZ (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.