Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
PD 2946 · BOS → YTZ
departs 12:05 PM ET · arrives 2:26 PM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 30%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at YTZ that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YTZ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
YTZ (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.