PT 6108 · ROC → PHL

departs 7:43 PM ET · arrives 9:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ROC that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from ROC are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.14 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 6108 · ROC → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?