Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 456 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

QK 456 · YYZ → LGA

departs 8:10 AM EDT · arrives 9:46 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 8am departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.11 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 456 · YYZ → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?