Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 535 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

QK 535 · LGA → YTZ

departs 1:14 PM ET · arrives 3:01 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YTZ?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at YTZ that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YTZ (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 535 · LGA → YTZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YTZ?