Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 537 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

QK 537 · LGA → YTZ

departs 6:44 PM ET · arrives 8:31 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YTZ?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YTZ (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 537 · LGA → YTZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YTZ?