Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 863 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

QK 863 · YUL → PHL

departs 7:55 PM EDT · arrives 9:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at YUL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.36 in

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 863 · YUL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?