Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2096
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
QX 2096 · SFO → PAE
departs 11:20 AM PT · arrives 1:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 24%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PAE (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.