Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2452
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
QX 2452 · MFR → SEA
departs 5:51 AM PT · arrives 7:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/12 17%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MFR is prone to delays
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from MFR are usually not late
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.