Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
QX 2494 · SAN → SFO
departs 1:10 PM PT · arrives 2:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 29%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sat 10/17 28%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.