Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA ROUGE · FLIGHT RV 1736 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

RV 1736 · IAH → YYZ

departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 4:34 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at YYZ that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YYZ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.47 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1736 · IAH → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?