TK 201 · IST → DEN

departs 2:54 PM +03 · arrives 6:11 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IST

Weather at each end

IST (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TK 201 · IST → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?