Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 203
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
TK 203 · IST → SEA
departs 3:07 PM +03 · arrives 4:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IST (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.