Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 81
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
TK 81 · IST → BOS
departs 6:00 PM +03 · arrives 9:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 32%
Thu 10/15 25%
Sat 10/17 25%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±4 pts
+23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IST (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.