Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

TAP AIR PORTUGAL · FLIGHT TP 216 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

TP 216 · BOS → LIS

departs 10:48 PM ET · arrives 10:11 AM WEST

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at LIS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIS?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 10pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIS

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

LIS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TP 216 · BOS → LIS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIS?