Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1039 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 1039 · AUA → EWR

departs 3:12 PM AST · arrives 8:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±11 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

AUA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1039 · AUA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?