Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1315 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 1315 · LAS → DEN

departs 9:37 AM PT · arrives 12:41 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1315 · LAS → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?