Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1370 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 1370 · TPA → IAD

departs 6:57 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1370 · TPA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?