Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1501 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 1501 · IAH → TPA

departs 12:50 PM CT · arrives 4:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.20 in

TPA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1501 · IAH → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?