Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1604 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 1604 · SFO → DEN

departs 10:40 AM PT · arrives 2:23 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,933 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1604 · SFO → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?