Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1691 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 1691 · IAH → ORD

departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 2:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.20 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling8,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1691 · IAH → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?