Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1798 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 1798 · IAH → PHX

departs 2:28 PM CT · arrives 3:33 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.20 in

PHX (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1798 · IAH → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?