Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1830 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 1830 · IAH → BWI

departs 6:23 PM CT · arrives 10:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.20 in

BWI (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1830 · IAH → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?