Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1859 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 12:35 PM CT (15 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 1859 · IAH → AUS

departs 12:05 PM CT · arrives 1:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at AUS that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.20 in

AUS (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1859 · IAH → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?