Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1933 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 1933 · LAS → EWR

departs 1:44 PM PT · arrives 9:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1933 · LAS → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?