Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1963 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 1963 · SLC → ORD

departs 4:08 PM MT · arrives 8:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±7 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SLC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.67 in

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1963 · SLC → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?