Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1973 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 1973 · MSY → SFO

departs 8:03 AM CT · arrives 10:43 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1973 · MSY → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?