Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1976 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 1976 · BOS → IAH

departs 1:37 PM ET · arrives 4:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.02 in

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1976 · BOS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?