Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2016 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 2016 · PDX → IAD

departs 8:19 AM PT · arrives 4:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts2 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2016 · PDX → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?