Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2136 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 2136 · BOS → IAD

departs 7:27 PM ET · arrives 9:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 7pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2136 · BOS → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?