UA 2159 · DEN → MCI

departs 9:50 AM MT · arrives 12:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day

↑ 9am departures from DEN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MCI (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2159 · DEN → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?