Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2181 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 2181 · IAH → LGA

departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 4:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2181 · IAH → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?