Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2196 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 2196 · IAH → RDU

departs 12:09 PM CT · arrives 4:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

RDU (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2196 · IAH → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?