Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2622 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 2622 · FAT → LAX

departs 8:04 AM PT · arrives 9:22 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ FAT is prone to delays

↑ 8am departures from FAT are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2622 · FAT → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?