Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2653 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 2653 · ORD → BWI

departs 10:51 AM CT · arrives 1:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2653 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?